Греция последует примеру Аргентины или останется в Еврозоне?

May 31, 2011 188 Comments Автор

«Греция обанкротится в любом случае, какие бы меры не предпринимало правительство. Но возврат к драхме -  это единственное правильное решение и надежда на развитие», – пишет старший научный сотрудник Института международных исследований Джозеф Джоффе в своей публикации «Wall Street Journal».

Автор статьи отметил, что если Греция не получит очередную долю кредита в ближайшие дни, то банкротство наступит уже в июле: «За последние 2 года разница между расходами и поступлениями госбюджета составляет 26%, и несмотря на все усилия, крах неизбежен. Любые попытки есть ничто иное, как откладывание «Судного дня» на потом».

Джозеф Джоффе рассматривает 3 варианта развития событий:

В первом случае Европа будет поддерживать отстающую Грецию и вносить всё новые и новые средства  для развития страны, оставаясь единственным источником финансирования.

Во втором варианте Европа «прощает» Греции все долги, но со временем долг снова начнёт расти.

Третий случай – выход Греции из Еврозоны.

Постоянную поддержку Европы нельзя рассматривать в качестве решения существующих экономических трудностей по причине политических разногласий. Проблема Греции не только в ликвидности, которую можно решить путём вливания иностранных капиталов, корни  уходят вглубь слабого экономического фундамента, и лишь прибегнув к радикальным реформам можно обеспечить долгосрочные перспективы для Еврозоны.

В частности расходы на зарплаты служащих в Греции в 2005 г.  увеличились на 15%,  в то время как в Германии повышение составило всего 5%:

«Для того, чтобы восстановить конкурентоспособность, правительство Греции должно согласиться с принятием нового социального контракта и сократить штат госслужащих минимум на 25% ».

Тем не менее, многие аналитики пишут о том, что выход Греции из Еврозоны приведёт к краху европейских банков, страховых фондов, а значит, к распаду Европы. Но и участие Греции в Еврозоне дестабилизирует экономическое положение.

«Аргентина – это ярчайший пример в истории, указывающий на то, что отказ от пакетов помощи не так страшен. Ведь по сути, новая часть кредита Греции лишь продлит кризисное состояние, которое рано или поздно должно закончиться». Автор статьи пишет о том, что такой «Happy end», как у Аргентины, Грецию не ждёт, ведь восстановить доверие на мировом рынке не представляется возможным при использовании «слабым звеном» единой европейской валюты.

Если выход из Еврозоны произойдёт, банкротства не избежать, но при таких раскладах это может стать порогом амортизации для развития и возможности роста. Вопрос лишь в том, какой выбрать сценарий: либо идти  за Европой, либо последовать примеру Аргентины.

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